New projections reveal alarming potential climate risks to exploitable fish biomass for nearly all regions of the world’s ocean, including top producer countries and those heavily reliant on aquatic foods, according to a report released today by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
The report, “Climate Change Risks to Marine Ecosystems and Fisheries: Projections to 2100,” indicates that global projections of exploitable fish biomass show declines of more than 10 percent by mid-century under a high-emissions scenario for many regions. By the end of the century, under this scenario, which projects global warming of 3–4°C, declines worsen to 30 percent or more in 48 countries and territories.
Conversely, under a low-emissions scenario, which projects global warming of 1.5–2°C, changes stabilize with no change or a decrease of 10 percent or less across 178 countries and territories by the end of the century. Notable declines are projected for top fish producer nations, such as Peru and China, with reductions of 37.3 percent and 30.9 percent respectively under the high-emissions scenario but stabilize under the low-emissions scenario.
Produced by the Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) in collaboration with FAO, the report underscores the benefits of climate change mitigation measures for fisheries and aquatic foods. Released during the Thirty-sixth session of the Committee on Fisheries (COFI36) at FAO headquarters in Rome, the report follows the latest edition of “The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture,” which reported a record high of 223.2 million tonnes in global production in 2022.
“Understanding the potential impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and their fisheries is crucial to design adaptation programmes at appropriate scales,” said Manuel Barange, FAO Assistant Director-General and Director of the Fisheries and Aquaculture Division. “Lower emissions significantly reduce end-of-century biomass losses for nearly all countries and territories.”
The report also highlights the need for future FishMIP research to include other ocean and coastal uses to achieve FAO’s Blue Transformation vision, fostering more resilient, equitable, and sustainable aquatic food systems.
Source-FAO
