As temperatures soar across the country, concerns are mounting among Punjab farmers about the potential impact on the crucial wheat crop. Experts warn that a mere 1-degree Celsius increase in temperature could result in a significant decline in wheat production, estimating a potential loss of 6 metric tonnes.
Adding to the anxieties, India is facing the looming threat of a drought-like situation this year due to the anticipated El Nino weather phenomenon. Director of the Institute of Climate Change Studies, DS Pai, has raised the alarm, predicting a reduction in monsoon rainfall to below 90 percent of the long-period average.
Pai expressed concerns about the potential consequences of El Nino, noting that after three years of La Nina, the weather pattern is likely to bring about below-average rainfall, akin to historical droughts experienced in 1952, 1965, and 1972.
La Nina, the opposite of El Nino, is characterized by the unusual cooling of surface waters in the Pacific Ocean and is associated with deficits in rainfall and drought in India and neighbouring regions. This presents a grim scenario for a country where half the population relies on agriculture for their livelihoods.
“With the likely El Nino impact, there may be a long dry period. If El Nino peaks in winter and continues into the spring season of 2024, next year could be the warmest. The record temperature may break in 2024 if El Nino persists,” Pai cautioned.
The current below-normal rainfall in India raises concerns about the possibility of monsoon rainfall falling below 100 percent. While La Nina is still ongoing, it will take time for the phenomenon to fully establish itself. Pai highlighted the critical role of the monsoon’s performance at the outset, emphasizing that El Nino’s impact on rainfall in September, the final stretch of the monsoon, is crucial.
As temperatures continue to rise, the situation remains dynamic, with expectations that conditions may normalize by May. The complex nature of predicting El Nino makes it necessary to monitor the situation for the next 1–2 months, with historical data indicating that nine monsoons since 1950 have been rainfall-deficient due to El Nino. The unfolding scenario poses a significant challenge for India’s agriculture-dependent population and underscores the need for proactive measures to mitigate potential impacts on food production.
