The Việt Nam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) anticipates a slight recovery in Việt Nam’s seafood exports during the first half of 2024, compared to the previous year’s low base. Global economic challenges and high interest rates are expected to limit consumer spending, influencing a gradual recovery in global seafood consumption demand.
VASEP advises businesses to focus on market expansion, particularly as Việt Nam’s seafood exports to the US, the European Union (EU), and South Korea are likely to rebound in the initial months of the year. While overall demand for seafood is expected to recover, consumers are likely to concentrate on lower-priced products such as canned fish, raw fish for processing canned fish, dried fish, and dried shrimp.
Lê Hằng, VASEP’s communications director, notes that the price reduction of many aquatic species may persist until the end of the first half of 2024. Vietnamese shrimp is expected to face stiff competition in terms of price and supply from Ecuador and India, both seeking to increase their market share in key regions.
The oversupply of shrimp may extend through the first half of 2024, with a projected global shrimp production increase of 4.8% to 5.9 million tonnes for the year. The challenge of the IUU yellow card remains a hurdle for seafood exports, potentially causing stagnation in exports to the EU if not addressed in 2024.
Pangasius exports, however, present an optimistic outlook, as inventories in the US, China, and EU markets have significantly decreased. Pangasius export prices are expected to rise again in these markets. The trend of importing deeply processed and value-added pangasius products, such as fish maw and pangasius patties, is also on the rise.
VASEP forecasts a gradual recovery in Việt Nam’s seafood exports throughout 2024, with a more positive outlook in the second half of the year. The industry’s export revenue is expected to range between US$9.5 billion and $10 billion, with the shrimp sector targeting $4 billion, pangasius around $1.9 billion, and the remaining seafood products forecasted to earn approximately $3.6 billion to $3.8 billion.
In 2023, total seafood production increased by 2% year-on-year to 9.3 million tonnes, with seafood export turnover reaching about $9.2 billion, including significant contributions from shrimp.
